The Positive Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Slovenian Economy

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to assess the resilience of Slovenia’s economy after the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy in Q4 2019, in years 2020, 2021 and 2022. To assess the resilience of Slovenia’s economy, two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q2 2022) and not including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economy during the pandemic, the greater the difference the greater the resilience. Eurozone and Germany are used as benchmarks. By subtracting the average forecasted Q3 2022-Q4 2050 Eurozone quarterly GDP growth rate (annualized) obtained with the Q4 1997-Q2 2022 data, +0.68%, by the one obtained with the Q4 1997-Q3 2019 data, +0.57%, the difference is +0.11%, whereas with Slovenia the difference is 0.10% [+1.20% - (+1.10%)] and with Germany the difference is -0.12% [+0.89% - (+1.01%)]. Thus, Slovenia’s economy shows an almost equal resilience (+0.10%) than the Eurozone’s (+0.11%) based on Q3 2022-Q4 2050 forecasts and a stronger resilience than Germany’s (-0.12%). In addition, the authors pointed out that the average of the Q3 2022-Q4 2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecasts of Slovenia is expected to be +1.20% with the Q4 1997-Q2 2022 data whereas it is expected to be only +0.68% for the Eurozone and +0.89% for Germany. Slovenia’s economy shows better prospects than the Eurozone’s and Germany’s economies.