Is NATO Enough? Slovenia’s Blind Spot and the Path to Autonomy Between Strategic Redundancy and Neutrality

Abstract

This study assesses Slovenia's security strategy through the lens of its NATO membership, with particular focus on whether continued alignment with NATO remains the most appropriate option. By examining official strategic documents, academic literature and case studies of neutral European countries, it highlights the lack of contingency planning outside the NATO framework. The analysis considers the legal, political, and geographical dimensions of security guarantees, the risks of entanglement in allied conflicts, and the potential benefits of a more autonomous strategic position. Against the backdrop of a broader reconfiguration of transatlantic relations and ongoing debates on the EU’s strategic autonomy, the article identifies both the opportunities and vulnerabilities of Slovenia's current approach by exploring possible scenarios ranging from maintaining the status quo to pursuing neutrality. The findings suggest the need to actively consider ‘Plan B’ options and to invest in strategic redundancy within an increasingly unpredictable global landscape, with the aim of safeguarding national interests. This argument is relevant not only for Slovenia but also for other countries in comparable geopolitical situations, such as the Czech Republic and North Macedonia.